Dr Kwabena Duffuor, Finance Minister
The thrust of Ghana’s economic policy has always been to chase single-digit inflation figure, and now that the Mills administration, according to the Statistical Services, has attained it in 19 months at 9.52% (June), the key question is what does it mean?
That question is essential, because economic analysts/business people say it has been attained at a huge cost to business and the entire economy; the President of the AGI, Nana Owusu Afari, is one such personality. Some observers even say it is “artificial,” meaning unsustainable over the medium-to long-term.
When Mills took office in January 2009 he accused Kufuor of leaving a huge national debt that has left the economy in a lurch, and Mills has to get it out. Strangely and ironically, it took President Mills over six months to name an economic management commission led by his brother.
Inflation is one of the macro-economic indices, and important to the health of an economy. In simple terms, according to economists, inflation is the relationship between the number of goods available on the market and the amount of money chasing those goods. And I add that it measures the ability to afford commodities on the market.
Suppose the price per cup of rice is 50p, and Ti-Kelenkelen can afford two cups each day. Assume now that the price per cup of rice goes up to GH¢1.00, but Ti-Kelenkelen’s salary remains the same, so now he can afford one cup. Suppose again that the price per cup goes up to GH¢1.50, it is not likely Ti-Kelenkelen can buy less than one cup, so he buys one cup; since his salary remains the same, it is likely he is now spending less on say entertainment to afford a cup of rice.
With each increase in price two cups will cost Ti-Kelenkelen more money, more money is chasing the same amount of rice, and affordability is gradually becoming a problem. That means inflation is rising.
There are instances where incomes will rise along with prices, but inflation will still rise. That is where the percentage rise in income level is lower than the percentage rise in prices of commodities. Thus if the price of crude oil rises and national administration through the NPA raises the prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene, the prices of all commodities go up. The following month, the MPC will announce that inflation rose after the increases in the prices of fuels.
Using simple figures, if prices of each commodity – fuels, food, inputs, everything – rises by say 20% and the minimum wage goes up by say 20%, but the prices of utilities, say water also rise by 40% and electricity by 30%, we have a total increase in prices of 90% as against a pay raise of 20%. Affordability will decrease and inflation will rise.
On the other hand, if income level remains the same, but somehow, the prices per cup of rice drops to say 20p, Ti-Kelenkelen could afford more rice or save money on rice to spends on other commodities. With affordability rising, inflation falls; until, of course, there is scarcity.
Now, prices of commodities have been rising consistently since May 2009 when the Mills administration raised the prices of petrol fuel, yet the Statistical Services/MPC tell us inflation has dropped over the period till date (to 9.52%). Prices are rising, salaries/incomes have not kept up, people are buying less of everything, and affordability is dropping, so how can inflation be falling?
That is a contradiction; a strange one at that!
The experts insist something is not right, and have explained that, though contractors and private agencies provide services to the state, the Mills administration is not paying them as a means of controlling government expenditure. That means government is holding on to money and starving the private sector of cash they have worked for. That way government is borrowing less from people and banks through treasury bills, and since government’s affordability is rising the Statistical Services/MPC are translating that to mean inflation is coming down.
But government affordability is not a measure of true inflation. The only place one could measure true inflation is the marketplace or private sector; of course, taking into account government’s role in there. What the Mills administration is doing is using only what government is doing to measure inflation.
Defending the means used to control inflation, Dr Nii Moi Thompson, speaking on Citi FM, said, the expenditure of some MDAs went up by 100-270% while for others it was as high as 400% in 2008, an election year.
So, how long can government keep up that act of non-payment? In 2012, an election year, how would it control spending? With his eyes on 2012, will Mills refuse to spend even next year? The answers will tell you Mills has chosen a means of controlling inflation that is not sustainable in the medium- to long-term.
But, why did he choose that means? The official position is that a sick person (economy saddled with debt) must take the bitter medicine to get well, but Ti-Kelenkelen must ask: What if that supposed medicine is killing the brain, heart and liver of that sick person?
The truth is the Mills administration chose that means simply to satisfy an IMF/World Bank condition for the $500 million loan they went for. That is usually an easy IMF recommendation for controlling inflation in third world countries. That option, however, always takes us backwards, because government is the biggest spender in our economy, and the moment government stops spending (to control inflation) money begins to dry up in the economy, businesses suffer, general spending drops, and all business activity is affected negatively.
And if you go to the markets today, people are spending less and less each month, companies are not recouping their expenses fast enough let alone make good profit; businesses cannot expand and employ more people; with companies/business profitability going down, unemployment is rising and eventually government will make less in taxes.
And Ti-Kelenkelen must call the creature by name by agreeing with Nana Akufo-Addo that the general economy is imploding – the brain, heart and liver are dying slowly.
And that brings us to why banks are not reducing interest rates as much as the MPC’s reduction in the prime rate over the months suggests. The point is that the current inflation rate of 9.52% is not a true measure of the current uncertainties/risks in the economy out there. And Ti-Kelenkelen is not holding brief for banks, but in a risky/uncertain economy, banks are extra-careful in lending money, and their way of controlling the rate of lending is by having interest rates that scares off loan seekers. In such economic conditions there are no offers government can offer to ameliorate the actual risks on the ground to encourage banks to lend.
But that entire scenario portends greater omen. It means those in value-added production that take time to bear fruits and profit, say agriculture/manufacturing, cannot go for loans. The only ones who could safely go for loans are importers – they clear their goods and sell these to recoup their monies faster to repay their loans; only importers can afford high-interests loans, since their turn-over period is generally short-term. Thus we are increasingly becoming less and less of a producer economy and more and more of an importer economy, a mere market for other countries, whose companies make profits creating jobs for their own people.
The only way we can build a strong economy is to produce more of value-added products and export more of those. And the way the Mills administration is pursuing its inflation targets is definitely not the way to build a strong economy.
Interestingly, the Kufuor administration used a more viable alternative. You see, running a country is about choices and in a constantly globalizing economy each choices has a price, and the price you are prepared to pay determines your choice.
When faced with the choice between controlling inflation by cutting back on government expenditure and controlling inflation by government keeping the general economy open and relatively stable to encourage productivity/growth while running a debt, the Kufuor administration chose the latter option; with the added objective of raising more revenue to clear the debt.
For years on end now the United States has been running a constant trade deficit (or debt) with China and Japan, but the US has not stopped buying from those countries; it is trying to negotiate, looking for ways to reduce the deficit, but the US still keeps its own economy open, productive and relatively stable by continuing to buy from Japan and China.
One of the criteria for membership in the European Union is low government debt, but for many years now several members, including the strongest economy in the union, Germany, have been running above-limit debts. Some were running those debts even before the global financial crisis hit everyone so hard. That of Greece is news today only because the other members fear it could become contagious if they do not go to her rescue.
Again, for several years now major western countries and Japan have constantly been reducing interest rates not because they love doing so in an uncertain economy, but because it releases monies to the private sector to keep the economy open, productive and relatively stable. Such interest-rate reductions come at a price, possible higher inflation, but it is a less expensive option/price to pay to keep alive the one thing no economy can afford to suspend for even a day, the prospect of economic growth.
In one knot, this is what Ti-Kelenkelen is saying: Single-digit inflation is best for any economy, yes, but we cannot attain it at the expense of growth.
Osikani Yaw
Single-digit inflation…, so what?
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